Description

This analysis provides a forecast of FET prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-08-31 0.391364 0.452121 0.518316 0.595673 0.683474 0.779908 0.893723
2025-09-07 0.303384 0.390009 0.493697 0.626376 0.791003 0.987876 1.240400
2025-09-14 0.235153 0.327794 0.446806 0.609674 0.825344 1.099541 1.472688
2025-09-21 0.189262 0.282433 0.409406 0.593091 0.849606 1.192286 1.681262
2025-09-28 0.156660 0.248358 0.380002 0.579911 0.872225 1.279664 1.884974
2025-10-05 0.138797 0.232072 0.372226 0.594213 0.931925 1.420034 2.170447
2025-10-12 0.127965 0.224457 0.375480 0.623804 1.015015 1.598715 2.523260
2025-10-19 0.115844 0.212742 0.370415 0.639034 1.076369 1.748591 2.843334
2025-10-26 0.103887 0.199416 0.360775 0.645130 1.122745 1.877751 3.139762
2025-11-02 0.092432 0.185228 0.347735 0.643580 1.155530 1.986678 3.410645
2025-11-09 0.081456 0.170289 0.331456 0.634303 1.173712 2.072217 3.648415
2025-11-16 0.072052 0.156950 0.316337 0.625100 1.190431 2.155406 3.886570
2025-11-23 0.062122 0.141349 0.295555 0.603987 1.185212 2.202819 4.071216
2025-11-30 0.059547 0.140481 0.302781 0.636043 1.279029 2.428266 4.578394
2025-12-07 0.052027 0.127981 0.285614 0.619177 1.280245 2.489818 4.801428
2025-12-14 0.045522 0.116693 0.269460 0.602362 1.279541 2.546987 5.019283
2025-12-21 0.040164 0.107179 0.255805 0.588994 1.283933 2.613103 5.256845
2025-12-28 0.037662 0.104065 0.255545 0.603501 1.344929 2.789414 5.710453
2026-01-04 0.036514 0.104106 0.262254 0.633514 1.439810 3.036586 6.313204
2026-01-11 0.034405 0.101395 0.262365 0.648961 1.505415 3.230634 6.824987
2026-01-18 0.031883 0.097220 0.258555 0.655143 1.551657 3.388962 7.275985
2026-01-25 0.029152 0.092041 0.251711 0.653572 1.580731 3.514104 7.667843
2026-02-01 0.026272 0.085984 0.241975 0.644163 1.591564 3.602250 7.989949